CR 11:97-107 (1999)  -  doi:10.3354/cr011097

Estimation of the beginning and end of recurrent events within a climate regime

Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe*, Peter C. Werner

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg, PO Box 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany

ABSTRACT: Exact knowledge of the temporal and spatial variations of the beginning, end and length of a quasi-periodic event can be of importance for estimating climate changes. An extended sequential version of the Mann-Kendall test is presented which makes it possible to describe such events in a statistically significant way and to represent these events in their temporal sequence. The usefulness of this procedure is demonstrated using 2 examples: rainy and dry periods in Northeast Brazil and the annual cycle of relative humidity in Central Europe.

KEY WORDS: Quasi-periodic events · Extended sequential version of the Mann-Kendall test · Rainy and dry periods · Semi-arid regions · Annual cycle of relative humidity

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