CR 22:227-235 (2002)  -  doi:10.3354/cr022227

Drought analysis based on a cluster Poisson model: distribution of the most severe drought

Jesús Abaurrea, Ana Carmen Cebrián*

Dpto. Métodos Estadísticos, Universidad de Zaragoza, Ed. Matemáticas, Pedro Cerbuna 12, Zaragoza 50009, Spain
*Corresponding author. E-mail:

ABSTRACT: This work aims to characterize the largest drought event to occur in a given period of time. A Poisson cluster process is used to model drought occurrence and a vector of 3 random variables (duration, deficit and maximum intensity) to describe their severity. Some results on the distribution of the maximum in a random size sample are developed in order to describe the largest drought events.


KEY WORDS: Drought analysis · Poisson cluster process · Maximum in a random size sample · Threshold methods · Extreme values


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