CR 34:129-144 (2007)  -  doi:10.3354/cr034129

Generalized linear modeling approach to stochastic weather generators

Eva M. Furrer*, Richard W. Katz

National Center for Atmospheric Research, PO Box 3000, Boulder, Colorado 80307-3000, USA
Sponsored by the National Science Foundation

ABSTRACT: Stochastic weather generators are a popular method for producing synthetic sequences of daily weather. We demonstrate that generalized linear models (GLMs) can provide a general modeling framework, allowing the straightforward incorporation of annual cycles and other covariates (e.g. an index of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO) into stochastic weather generators. We apply the GLM technique to daily time series of weather variables (i.e. precipitation and minimum and maximum temperature) from Pergamino, Argentina. Besides annual cycles, the fit is significantly improved by permitting both the transition probabilities of the first-order Markov chain for daily precipitation occurrence, as well as the means of both daily minimum and maximum temperature, to depend on the ENSO state. Although it is more parsimonious than typical weather generators, the GLM-based weather generator performs comparably, particularly in terms of extremes and overdispersion.

KEY WORDS: Weather generator · Generalized linear models · GLMs · El Niño-Southern Oscillation · ENSO

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