CR 39:87-97 (2009)  -  DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00799

Damage costs of climate change through intensification of tropical cyclone activities: an application of FUND

Daiju Narita1,*, Richard S. J. Tol2,3,4, David Anthoff2

1Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Düsternbrooker Weg 120, Kiel 24105, Germany
2Economic and Social Research Institute, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2, Ireland
3Institute for Environmental Studies and Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit, De Boelelaan 1081, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
4Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Baker Hall 129, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213, USA

ABSTRACT: Climate change may intensify tropical cyclone activities and amplify their negative economic effects. We simulated the direct economic impact of tropical cyclones enhanced by climate change with the integrated assessment model Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution (FUND), Version 3.4. The results show that in the basic case (parameter levels based on intermediate estimates), the direct economic damage caused by tropical cyclones ascribed to the effect of climate change would amount to US$19 billion globally in the year 2100 (almost the same level as the baseline, i.e. current global damage of tropical cyclones), while the ratio to world gross domestic product (GDP) would be 0.006%. The USA and China account for much of the absolute damage, whereas Small Island States incur the largest damage if evaluated as the proportion of GDP. Model results were sensitive to the choice of baseline and of the wind-speed elasticity of storm damage.


KEY WORDS: Climate change · Tropical storms · Economic impact


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Cite this article as: Narita D, Tol RSJ, Anthoff D (2009) Damage costs of climate change through intensification of tropical cyclone activities: an application of FUND. Clim Res 39:87-97. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00799

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