CR 43:263-273 (2010)  -  DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00938

Simulation of the surface temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere during the last 300 years of the Little Ice Age using a thermodynamic model

V. M. Mendoza1,*, B. Mendoza2, R. Garduño1, J. Adem1,3

1Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera and 2Instituto de Geofísica, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, México DF, Mexico
3Member of El Colegio Nacional, México DF, Mexico

ABSTRACT: The last 300 yr of the Little Ice Age are characterized by 3 minima in solar activity, known as the Maunder Minimum (~1645–1710), the Dalton Minimum (~1795–1823) and a minimum between ~1880 and 1930. In particular, during the Maunder and Dalton minima, surface temperature reconstructions present anomalies larger than –0.7°C. Experiments using an energy balance model, known as the thermodynamic climate model (TCM), show that the changes in CO2 and solar irradiance, relative to the period 1961–1990, produced a temperature decrease of approximately –0.27°C during the Maunder Minimum in the Northern Hemisphere. The incorporation of changes in low cloud cover, which we assumed as induced by the galactic cosmic rays, caused an even larger decrease in the surface temperature, which reached approximately –0.46°C in the Maunder Minimum. The results of the model are compared with reconstructions of surface temperature anomalies developed by several authors, showing good agreement. We conclude that including an empirical relationship between low cloud cover and cosmic rays in the TCM produces a noticeable cooling in model results.


KEY WORDS: Maunder and Dalton minima · Atmospheric CO2 · Solar irradiance · Galactic cosmic rays · Low clouds


Full text in pdf format 
Cite this article as: Mendoza VM, Mendoza B, Garduño R, Adem J (2010) Simulation of the surface temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere during the last 300 years of the Little Ice Age using a thermodynamic model. Clim Res 43:263-273. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00938

Export citation
Mail this link - Contents Mailing Lists - RSS
- -