CR 46:137-146 (2011)  -  DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00978

ABSTRACT: We investigated the effects of climate change on rainfed rice yield using the CERES-rice crop growth model and identified suitable agro-adaptation measures to address the threats induced by climate change on rice production in Northeast Thailand. The crop physiological data from field experiments conducted in the region was used to calibrate the model. Future climate scenarios for the periods 2020–2029, 2050–2059 and 2080–2089 were developed using the global climate model ECHAM4 and downscaled using the regional climate model PRECIS. Results indicated a decline in the rice yield in the region by 17.81, 27.59 and 24.34% for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively, compared to the average yield during 1997–2006 under the ECHAM4 A2 climate change scenario. Simulation experiments suggested that for a given temperature, the yields of 2 rice varieties, KDML105 and RD6, increase with increases in CO₂ concentration. On the contrary, increases in temperature reduce the yield at a constant CO₂ concentration. The overall decrease in yield under future climatic conditions can be mitigated significantly by proper nutrient management and altering planting dates. Hybrid rice cultivars having a high temperature tolerance can also help to address the challenges imposed by future climate.

KEY WORDS: Agro-adaptation · CERES-rice · Climate change · ECHAM4 A2 scenario · Forecasting · Northeast Thailand · Rice yield