CR 47:47-55 (2011)  -  DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00963

Contribution to the CR Special: 'Climate services for sustainable development'

Long-range forecasting and the Global Framework for Climate Services

R. J. Graham1,*, W.-T. Yun2, J. Kim2, A. Kumar3, D. Jones4, L. Bettio4, N. Gagnon5, R. K. Kolli6, D. Smith1

1Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
2Korea Meteorological Administration, 460-18 Sindaebang-dong Dongjak-qu, Seoul 156-726, Republic of Korea
3Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, World Weather Building, Room 800,
5200 Auth Road, Camp Springs, Maryland 20746-4304, USA
4Australian Bureau of Meteorology, GPO Box 1289, 3001 Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
5Meteorological Service of Canada, 2121 Trans-Canada Highway, Dorval, Québec H9P 1J3, Canada
6Climate Prediction & Adaptation Branch, Climate and Water Department, World Meteorological Organization, 7 bis Avenue de la Paix, CP 2300, 1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland

ABSTRACT: We describe the progress in the international coordination of long-range forecasting fostered by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), specifically for the seasonal to interannual timescale. Coordination has been achieved through the creation of new infrastructure, notably 11 Global Producing Centres (GPCs) for long-range forecasts, and definition of operational standards in forecast output and associated material. Examples discussed show improvements to the integration, usefulness and operational delivery of long-range forecast products to the world-wide climate community. Products are in wide use, and cover both predictive information, up to 6 mo ahead, and verification information indicating forecast quality. Proposals for future expansions of the role of GPCs are discussed, with a view to addressing the challenges presented by the development of the Global Framework for Climate Services. In particular, implementation of regular WMO-coordinated Global Seasonal Climate Updates is proposed, to provide authoritative, readily accessible advice on the state of the global climate and prospects for the next season. In addition we argue that the skill benefits provided by decadal-range predictions initialised with the observed climate state, relative to uninitialised (IPCC-type) predictions, are sufficient to begin similar international coordination in multiannual-to-decadal prediction, through extending the role of those GPCs that are developing decadal-prediction capability.


KEY WORDS: WMO · Long-range forecasts · Global Producing Centres · GPC · Global Framework for Climate Services · GFCS · Lead Centres · Seasonal forecasts · Decadal prediction


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Cite this article as: Graham RJ, Yun WT, Kim J, Kumar A and others (2011) Long-range forecasting and the Global Framework for Climate Services. Clim Res 47:47-55. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00963

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