CR 53:179-203 (2012)  -  DOI:

Modelling the effects of climate change on air quality over Central and Eastern Europe: concept, evaluation and projections

Katarzyna Juda-Rezler1,*, Magdalena Reizer1, Peter Huszar2, Bernd C. Krüger3, Prodromos Zanis4, Dimiter Syrakov5, Eleni Katragkou6, Wojciech Trapp7, Dimitris Melas6, Hristo Chervenkov8, Ioannis Tegoulias4, Tomas Halenka2

1Faculty of Environmental Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, 00-653 Warsaw, Poland
2Department of Meteorology and Environment Protection, Charles University, 180 00 Prague, Czech Republic
3Institute of Meteorology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, 1190 Vienna, Austria
4Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece
5Department of Air and Water Pollution, National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, 1784 Sofia, Bulgaria
6Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece
7Air Protection Unit of Ekometria, 80-299 Gdańsk, Poland
8National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Branch Plovdiv, 4000 Plovdiv, Bulgaria

ABSTRACT: This paper presents regional scale simulations aiming to assess the sensitivity of future air quality under anticipated climate change, with a focus on near-surface ozone (O3) and particulate matter with a diameter < 10 µm (PM10). Constant anthropogenic emissions and biogenic emissions varying with climate were used. The modelling was carried out with regional climate models coupled to Chemical Transport Models for 3 decadal time slices, under the IPCC A1B scenario, in both coarse (50 km) and high (10 km) resolution for Europe and for targeted domains of Central-Eastern Europe (CEE), respectively. Two modelling systems were applied: the RegCM/CAMx and ALADIN-Climate/CMAQ driven by ECHAM5 and ARPEGE global climate models, respectively. A comprehensive ‘operational’ evaluation of the performance of modelling systems driven by re-analysis of ECMWF ERA-40 fields was carried out for one full year. Our modelling systems fulfilled the fractional bias (FB) and fractional error (FE) skill criteria and the benchmark of index of agreement (IA) for maximum daily running 8 h mean O3, with FBs ranging from +4 to −11%, FEs of 14 to 31% and IAs of 0.63 to 0.87. The models’ performance for annual, winter and daily mean PM10 was weaker, with FBs of −3 to −49% and FEs of 38 to 66%, but skill criteria for PM were met. Those results justified the use of proposed modelling systems for future time projections. The simulated changes in climate has rather weak impacts on the air quality of the mid-century (2041−2050). For the end-century (2091−2100), our study shows an increase in summer mean O3 and a decrease in annual mean PM10 in CEE. The main climate factors responsible for projected changes were an increase in summer temperature and a decrease in summer precipitation for O3, and an increase in winter precipitation for PM10.

KEY WORDS: Climate change · Air quality · Central-Eastern Europe · Regional modelling · Model evaluation · Future projection · Ozone · Particulate matter

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Cite this article as: Juda-Rezler K, Reizer M, Huszar P, Krüger BC and others (2012) Modelling the effects of climate change on air quality over Central and Eastern Europe: concept, evaluation and projections. Clim Res 53:179-203.

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