CR 57:73-80 (2013)  -  DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01161

Urban expansion and environmental risk in the São Paulo Metropolitan Area

Andrea Ferraz Young*

State University of Campinas, Cidade Universitária ‘Zeferino Vaz’, Campinas Sao Paulo 13083-970, Brazil

ABSTRACT: In this study, we simulated the expansion of the São Paulo Metropolitan Area (SPMA)—the largest metropolitan area in Brazil—by the year 2030 using the Dinamica EGO software with data extracted from Landsat TM 7 (orbit point 219076, resolution 30 × 30 m). Based on the urban area in 2008, we used an urban growth scenario to analyze urban expansion up to 2030. Subsequently, we used ArcGIS to integrate the spatial information, combining layers to create risk maps. In this case, environmental risk factors, along with flood and landslide probabilities, were considered in order to identify high-risk areas. By 2030, the urban area was projected to increase by approximately 38.7%, and to cover 3250 km2. With this growth, 807 km2 of the region (and ~4.27% of urban expansion areas) will be in flood risk zones.


KEY WORDS: Climate change · Disasters · Intense precipitation · Flood · Landslide · Urban planning


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Cite this article as: Ferraz Young A (2013) Urban expansion and environmental risk in the São Paulo Metropolitan Area. Clim Res 57:73-80. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01161

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