CR 63:61-71 (2015)  -  DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01283

Detection and attribution analysis of annual mean temperature changes in China

Ying Xu1,*, Xuejie Gao2, Ying Shi1, Zhou Botao1

1National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, 100081 Beijing, China
2Climate Change Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100029 Beijing, China
*Corresponding author:

ABSTRACT: Using an optimal fingerprinting method and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model simulations, we attempted to quantify the human contribution to the observed annual mean temperature change that occurred over China between 1961 and 2005. Results indicate that the combined effects of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosol forcing are clearly detectable in the observed annual mean temperature change. Effects of anthropogenic and natural forcings are separately detectable, and the climate response to greenhouse gas forcing can be identified clearly and robustly. Our results also show that only when anthropogenic forcing is involved can the observed changes in China’s mean temperature from 1961 to 2005 be explained.


KEY WORDS: Detection and attribution · Climate change · CMIP5 · Models


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Cite this article as: Xu Y, Gao X, Shi Y, Botao Z (2015) Detection and attribution analysis of annual mean temperature changes in China. Clim Res 63:61-71. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01283

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