CR 66:91-101 (2015)  -  DOI:

Extreme rainfall and summer heat waves in Macau based on statistical theory of extreme values

Weiwen Wang1,3, Wen Zhou1,*, Soi Kun Fong2, Ka Cheng Leong2, Iu Man Tang2, Sau Wa Chang2, Weng Kun Leong2

1Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, PR China
2The Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau, Macau, PR China
3Present address: School of Architecture, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, PR China
*Corresponding author:

ABSTRACT: Macau has continuous meteorological observations for more than 100 yr, data which are rarely available in South China. This study first homogenizes long-term observations in Macau using procedures for change point detection and adjustment, and then applies the statistical theory of extreme values to investigate changes in meteorological extreme events, including extreme rainfall and summer heat waves, at this station. A Poisson-generalized Pareto (GP) model is applied to extreme rainfall modeling, while a statistical model established by extending the Poisson-GP method is applied to heat wave modeling. In this heat wave model, the frequency of summer heat waves is modeled by a Poisson distribution, their intensity is modeled by a GP distribution, and their duration is modeled by a geometric distribution. Results show that these statistical models permit realistic modeling of extreme events in Macau. Return levels of extreme rainfall and heat waves in Macau are estimated by the Poisson-GP model fitted to the daily rainfall amount and summer daily maximum temperatures, respectively. Trends of extreme events are introduced into these statistical models through changes in parameters. It is found that the frequency of extreme rainfall increases significantly in the observational record of Macau, while the positive trend in the intensity of extreme rainfall is nonsignificant. For changes in parameters in summer heat waves, a significant increasing trend in the frequency is found after an adjustment is applied to a detected change point in the temperature record, but the positive trends in the intensity and duration are nonsignificant.

KEY WORDS: Extreme rainfall · Heat wave · Theory of extreme values

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Cite this article as: Wang W, Zhou W, Fong SK, Leong KC, Tang IM, Chang SW, Leong WK (2015) Extreme rainfall and summer heat waves in Macau based on statistical theory of extreme values. Clim Res 66:91-101.

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