DAO 62:57-63 (2004)  -  doi:10.3354/dao062057

A deterministic model for the dynamicsof furunculosis in chinook salmonOncorhynchus tshawytscha

H. Ogut1,*, P. W. Reno2, D. Sampson2

1Department of Fisheries Technology, Faculty of Marine Sciences, Karadeniz Technical University, 61530 Surmene/Trabzon, Turkey
2Coastal Oregon Marine Experiment Station, Hatfield Marine Science Center, Oregon State University, Newport,Oregon 97365, USA

ABSTRACT: Studies were undertaken to determine the parameters of transmission of Aeromonas salmonicida in chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, and to develop a deterministic model of the dynamics of experimental furunculosis. For determination of disease transmission coefficient (β), disease-related mortality rate (α) and natural mortality rate (γ), fish in 70 tanks (~42 fish tank–1) were each exposed to a single infectious donor fish, 7 tanks were randomly selected daily and all individuals were examined for the presence of A. salmonicida in the kidney. The proportion of susceptible (S), infected (I) and removed (R, dead) individuals were determined daily. The parameters β, α, γ, reproductive ratio (R0) and threshold density were estimated to be 0.0214 infected ind. d–1, 0.29 infected ind. d–1, 0.00015 ind. d–1, 3.23 and 13.56 ind., respectively. Using these parameters, a deterministic disease model of A. salmonicida infection as a cause of furunculosis was constructed. The net rate at which new individuals became infected (the incidence rate) per unit time was proportional to S × I × β. The model-produced data for S were significantly associated with experimental data (r2 = 0.92). In brief, a simple SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) model was successfully utilized to simulate observed data

KEY WORDS: Deterministic models · Disease dynamics · Furunculosis · Aeromonas salmonicida

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