MEPS 474:43-52 (2013)  -  DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/meps10089

Extension of the match-mismatch hypothesis to predator-controlled systems

Joël M. Durant1,*, Dag Ø. Hjermann1,7, Tone Falkenhaug2, Dian J. Gifford3, Lars-Johan Naustvoll2, Barbara K. Sullivan3, Grégory Beaugrand4,5, Nils Chr. Stenseth1,2,6

1Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, PO Box 1066 Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway
2Institute of Marine Research, Flødevigen Marine Research Station, 4817 His, Norway
3Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, Rhode Island 02882, USA
4Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire d’Océanologie et de Géosciences, UMR LOG CNRS 8187, Université des Sciences et Technologies Lille, 1 BP 80, 62930 Wimereux, France
5Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth PL12PB, UK
6University of Agder, 4604 Kristiansand, Norway
7Present address: Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA) Gaustadalléen 21, 0349 Oslo, Norway

ABSTRACT: Differential change in the phenology of predators and prey is a potentially important climate-mediated mechanism influencing populations. The match-mismatch hypothesis describes the effect of predator-prey population synchrony on predator development and survival and is used to describe climate effects on ecological patterns and processes in prey-controlled terrestrial and marine ecosystems. We evaluated the hypothesis by considering the broader effects of predator-prey synchrony on prey standing stock and survival in addition to its well documented effects on the predator. Specifically, we suggest that an increase in asynchrony between predator and prey peak abundance can lead to increased survival and potentially increased recruitment of the prey in some systems. Using generalized additive models, we demonstrated that the matchmismatch hypothesis can be used not only for prey-controlled systems, but also for predatorcontrolled systems.


KEY WORDS: Predator-prey interaction · Recruitment · Trophic control · Top-down · Bottom-up · Narrangansett Bay · Skagerrak · North Sea


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Cite this article as: Durant JM, Hjermann DØ, Falkenhaug T, Gifford DJ and others (2013) Extension of the match-mismatch hypothesis to predator-controlled systems. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 474:43-52. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps10089

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