CR prepress abstract  -  doi: 10.3354/cr00748

ABSTRACT: Climate change is being increasingly recognized as a major trend that may influence outdoor environments used for recreation. Despite awareness of the pervasive effects of climate change, its effects on outdoor recreation have only recently been studied in some detail. In this paper we consider an economic framework that allows one to model how climate change may affect outdoor recreation users directly, as well as indirectly, via the impacts on natural resources upon which outdoor recreation depends. We also present a brief summary of selected empirical results bearing on climate sensitive recreational activities. Some outdoor recreational activities such as boating, golfing and beach recreation are expected to see increased visitation ranging from 14% to 36%, with small increases in temperature associated with near-term climate changes. Other activities, most notably snow sports like skiing, will likely lose recreational users. Finally, we add to the discussion regarding critical areas of future research needed so that recreation and economic researchers may provide society with more complete estimates of the changes in recreation activities and associated economic effects arising from climate change in the future.