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CR 09:17-23 (1998)  -  DOI:

Vulnerability of rainfed maize crops in Mexico to climate change

Cecilia Conde1,*, Diana Liverman2, Margarita Flores1, Rosa Ferrer1, Raquel Araújo1, Edith Betancourt1, Gloria Villarreal1, Carlos Gay3

1Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Circuito Exterior, CP 04510, México, D.F. México
2Latin American Area Center, 1522 East Drachman, PO Box 21045, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721, USA
3Unidad de Cooperación y Convenios Internacionales, Instituto Nacional de Ecología, Avenida Revolución 1425 nivel 31, 01040, México, D.F. México

The impacts of a potential climate change on rainfed maize crops in Mexico are analyzed. For that purpose, baseline scenarios based on current climate conditions and their relation with maize crop development were created. Climate change scenarios were further developed and the crop vulnerability under each scenario was assessed. Two methods were used to quantify vulnerability. In the first place, maps describing the suitability for crop production according to climate conditions were produced. The differences between the baseline and the climate change scenarios allowed for estimating the area of the country likely to be positively or negatively affected. Secondly, the CERES-Maize model was applied to estimate rainfed maize crop yields at 7 sites in Mexico under the baseline and climate change scenarios. Adaptive measures were proposed and their feasibility was assessed on the basis of a simple cost-benefit analysis.

Agriculture · Rainfed maize crops · Climate change · Vulnerability · Adaptation · CERES-Maize model

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