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CR 15:83-94 (2000)  -  doi:10.3354/cr015083

Visioning event horizons: Where do we go from here?

Dennis Bray*

GKSS Forschungszentrum, GAS Geb. 38, Max-Planck-Straße, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany

ABSTRACT: This paper suggests modeling approaches to add decision utility to climate impact assessments. It demonstrates how the Weberian sociological concept of ideal types may be modified to incorporate relevant sociological elements into otherwise rational-technocratic analyses. It proposes 2 means of implementing this approach, namely with the use of hybrid expert systems and the introduction of confidence factors, and with the use of Bayesian belief networks. No model is constructed, rather the means of operationalization are discussed.

KEY WORDS: Sociology of the environment · Impact assessment · Climate change · Informed decision making

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