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CR 24:71-90 (2003)  -  doi:10.3354/cr024071

Constructing social futures for climate-change impacts and response studies: building qualitative and quantitative scenarios with the participation of stakeholders

Simon Shackley1,*, Robert Deanwood2,**

1Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Manchester School of Management, UMIST, Manchester M60 1QD, United Kingdom
2Department of Planning and Landscape, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PL, United Kingdom **Present address: Entec UK Ltd, Gables House, Kenilworth Road, Leamington Spa, Warwickshire CV32 6SX, United Kingdom

ABSTRACT: This paper describes the development of socio-economic scenarios, in both qualitative and quantitative terms, for use in integrated assessment modelling of the impacts of climate change in 2 contrasting English regions: East Anglia and the North West. The need for socio-economic scenarios is discussed, and the Œmediating¹ role that they play between intellectual debate and policy deliberation is analysed. Four scenarios are constructed for each region: regional enterprise, global sustainability, regional stewardship and global markets, and we provide the rationale for the socio-economic and policy changes we propose under each scenario. Spatial mapping of 2 of the scenarios in each region is then conducted for 3 illustrative issues (built development, biodiversity and coastal zone), and a sample of non-spatial agricultural variables is inferred. A major focus of the paper is an examination of the experience of engaging stakeholders in the development of the socio-economic scenarios. We explore, in particular, how stakeholders reconciled a given long-term scenario framework with their shorter-term and particular policy-driven requirements.

KEY WORDS: Socio-economic scenarios · Regional climate-change impacts · Stakeholders

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