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Climate Research

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CR 25:179-182 (2003)  -  doi:10.3354/cr025179

Forecast of climate-induced change in macrozoobenthos in the southern North Sea in spring

Joachim W. Dippner1,*, Ingrid Kröncke2

1Baltic Sea Research Institute Warnemünde, Seestr. 15, 18119 Rostock, Germany
2Senckenberg Institute, Department for Marine Research, Schleusenstr. 39a, 26382 Wilhelmshaven, Germany

ABSTRACT: A multivariate regression model using observed climate data is used to forecast the climate-induced changes in macrozoobenthos in spring. This is demonstrated by a forecast over 6 yr of biomass, abundance and species number of macrozoobenthos communities in the southern North Sea. The partial linearity between climate and benthic variables, as well as the existence of a phase lag between climate variability during winter time and the response in macrozoobenthos in spring, makes the climate-induced variability in macrozoobenthos predictable. The results indicate that a major part of interannual and interdecadal variability of marine ecosystem, here demonstrated for macrozoobenthos, can be attributed to the physical forcing of winter climate.

KEY WORDS: Climate variability · Macrozoobenthos · Forecast · North Sea · Multivariate statistics

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