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CR 34:25-37 (2007)  -  doi:10.3354/cr034025

Modelling future water environments of Tasmania, Australia

Manuel Nunez1,*, John L. McGregor2

1School of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 78, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
2Commonwelth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, PB1, Aspendale, Victoria 3195, Australia

ABSTRACT: The CSIRO Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) was used to estimate likely changes in Tasmanian precipitation and potential evapotranspiration resulting from an enhanced greenhouse scenario. The model run encompassed two 30 yr periods: 1975–2005, designated as ‘present’ and 2035–2065, designated as ‘future’. In the present study, model precipitation and potential evapotranspiration were tuned by comparison with measurements from weather stations. Seasonal precipitation and potential evapotranspiration climatology were then created for each time period. Results show a small decrease in summer, autumn and spring precipitation along the eastern half of Tasmania, but a substantial increase in potential evapotranspiration during the same seasons. This results in a lowering of the net water storage in water bodies, and increased needs for irrigation.

KEY WORDS: Climate change · Global climate models · CSIRO Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model · CCAM · Future precipitation

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