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CR 42:79-88 (2010)  -  DOI:

Projected change in heat waves over China using the PRECIS climate model

Honglong Yang1,2, Yinlong Xu2,*, Lei Zhang1, Jie Pan2, Xia Li1

1College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
2Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
*Corresponding author. Email:

ABSTRACT: An analysis of the simulated distribution of present (1961–1990) and future (2071–2100) heat waves in China from one run of a regional model (PRECIS) using the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 scenario is presented. Results indicate that PRECIS simulates the spatial distribution of the extreme high tail of the probability density function of summer temperature in the present case compared to observations. In addition, the characterization of anticyclonic circulation anomalies with heat waves is well simulated by the model. The model projects that heat waves will be more intense, longer and more frequent, with distinct geographical patterns. Western northwest China and northeast China are projected to experience more heat waves than at present.

KEY WORDS: PRECIS · SRES A2 · Heat waves

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Cite this article as: Yang H, Xu Y, Zhang L, Pan J, Li X (2010) Projected change in heat waves over China using the PRECIS climate model. Clim Res 42:79-88.

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