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CR 44:3-15 (2010)  -  DOI:

ELPIS: a dataset of local-scale daily climate scenarios for Europe

M. A. Semenov1,*, M. Donatelli2,3, P. Stratonovitch1, E. Chatzidaki2, B. Baruth2

1Centre for Mathematical and Computational Biology, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Herts AL5 2JQ, UK
2European Commission - Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
3Agriculture Research Council CRA-CIN, Via di Corticella 133, 40128 Bologna, Italy

ABSTRACT: We developed a dataset of local-scale daily climate scenarios for Europe, called ELPIS. This dataset is based on 25 km grids of interpolated daily precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures and radiation from the European Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS) meteorological dataset and climate predictions from the multi-model ensemble of 15 global climate models that were used in the IPCC 4th Assessment Report. The site parameters for the distributions of climatic variables have been estimated by the LARS-WG weather generator for nearly 12000 grids for the period 1982–2008. Using changes in climate predicted by global climate models, we perturbed site parameters for the baseline climate to generate local-scale daily climate scenarios for the future under several emission scenarios. The ability of LARS-WG to reproduce daily weather for the period 1982–2008 was assessed using statistical tests. This prototype dataset was designed for use in conjunction with process-based impact models (e.g. crop simulation models) for the assessment of climate change impacts in Europe. A climate scenario generated by LARS-WG for a grid represents daily weather at a typical site from this grid that is used for agricultural production. This makes it different from the recently developed 25 km gridded dataset for Europe (E-OBS), which gives the best estimate of grid box averages to enable direct comparison with regional climate models.

KEY WORDS: Climate change · Impact assessment · Weather generator · Spatial interpolation · LARS-WG · Crop Growth Monitoring System· CGMS · ELPIS

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Cite this article as: Semenov MA, Donatelli M, Stratonovitch P, Chatzidaki E, Baruth B (2010) ELPIS: a dataset of local-scale daily climate scenarios for Europe. Clim Res 44:3-15.

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