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Climate Research

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CR 51:229-236 (2012)  -  DOI:

Modeling the sensitivity of outdoor recreation activities to climate change

Robert Finger1,*, Niklaus Lehmann2

1Agricultural Economics and Rural Policy Group, Wageningen University, Hollandseweg 1, 6706 KN Wageningen, The Netherlands
2Agri-Food and Agri-Environmental Economics Group, ETH Zürich, Sonneggstrasse 33, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland

ABSTRACT: This study develops a methodological framework to analyze the climate sensitivity as well as climate change impacts on outdoor recreation activities, applied to a case study of 2 lidos in the city of Zurich. A negative binomial regression is used to link daily data on lido entries with weather variables for the period 2003 to 2010, while controlling for non-climatic factors (such as weekends and school holidays). It shows that the number of lido visitors is significantly determined by weather conditions such as temperature and rainfall. Results from the regressions are combined with output of a stochastic weather generator to fully explore climate risks on a monthly and annual basis under current conditions. This setup is furthermore used to predict near future climate change impacts on lido entries using 3 emission scenarios. It shows that near future climate change characterized by temperature increases and reduced precipitation levels in late summer will have a positive effect on the number of lido visitors. While the expected increase of the annual number of visitors ranges from 9 to 19%, increases of >30% are expected for August and September.

KEY WORDS: Outdoor recreation · Climate sensitivity · Weather · Climate change impacts · Stochastic weather generator

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Cite this article as: Finger R, Lehmann N (2012) Modeling the sensitivity of outdoor recreation activities to climate change. Clim Res 51:229-236.

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