Modeling climate change effects on winter ski tourism in Andorra

ABSTRACT: Mountain regions have been identified as especially vulnerable areas to climate change. Changes in snowfall, glacier retreat and shifts in levels and distribution of biodiversity are some examples of the sensitivity of mountain ecosystems. Moreover, in many mountain economies, reliable snow cover plays a key role as an important resource for the winter tourism industry, the main income source and driving force of local development in such regions. This study presents a georeferenced agent-based model to analyze the climate change impacts on the ski industry in Andorra and the effect of snowmaking as future adaptation strategy. We project a reduction in ski season length and a drop in the number of skiers, especially in the lowest elevation ski resort of this region. Moreover, this work indicates that snowmaking cannot completely solve the problem of ensuring snow cover at low elevation ski resorts, and should only be considered as a suitable short-term strategy, rather than as a sustainable long-term adaptation strategy. The resulting model can be used as a planning support tool to help local stakeholders understand the vulnerability and potential impacts of climate change, and designing and developing appropriate sustainable adaptation strategies to future climate variability.