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CR 56:51-60 (2013)  -  DOI:

Global warming and tropical cyclone damage to housing in the Philippines

Miguel Esteban1,5,*, Per Stromberg2,6, Alexandros Gasparatos3, Dexter Thompson-Pomeroy4

1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Waseda University, 3-4-1 Ookubo, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 169-8555, Japan
2United Nations University, Institute of Advance Studies, 1-1-1 Minato Mirai, Nishi-ku, Yokohama 220-8502, Japan
3Biodiversity Institute, Oxford Martin School, Department of Zoology, Oxford University, Tinbergen Building, South Parks Rd., Oxford OX1 3PS, UK
4Columbia University, Columbia College, 6462 Lerner Hall, 2920 Broadway, New York, New York 10027, USA
5Present address: Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa City, Chiba, 277-8563, Japan
6Present address: Policy Analysis Unit, Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, Environmental Economics Unit, Vallhallavägen 195, 10648 Stockholm, Sweden

ABSTRACT: It is currently feared that the increase in surface sea temperature resulting from increasing levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere could result in higher tropical cyclone intensity in the future. Although the economic consequences have been studied for a number of developed countries, very little work has been done on developing countries. The present paper assesses the likely effects that increased typhoon intensity will have on damage to housing by the year 2085 in the Philippines, using a Monte Carlo simulation that magnifies the intensity of historical tropical cyclones between the years 1978 and 2008. The simulation shows that direct damage to housing could increase between 17 and 58%, depending on the adaptive capacity of each region in the Philippines and assuming the latter remains constant between now and 2085. The results clearly suggest the need to increase the resilience of local communities against the possible consequences of climate change.

KEY WORDS: Tropical cyclone · Climate change · Vulnerability · Philippines · Intensity increase · Housing damage

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Cite this article as: Esteban M, Stromberg P, Gasparatos A, Thompson-Pomeroy D (2013) Global warming and tropical cyclone damage to housing in the Philippines. Clim Res 56:51-60.

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