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CR 56:81-90 (2013)  -  DOI:

Revisiting a flawed downscaling methodology: Comment on Magaña et al. (2012)

F. Estrada1,2,*, R. E. Livezey3, B. Martínez-López1, C. Gay-García1

1Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Ciudad Universitaria, Circuito Exterior, 04510 Mexico DF, Mexico
2Institute for Environmental Studies — Instituut voor Milieuvraagstukken (IVM), Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences (FALW), VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands
35112 Lawton Drive, Bethesda, Maryland 20816, USA

ABSTRACT: The methods employed by Magaña et al. (2012; Clim Res 51:171-184) in their analysis of the effects of climate change in northern Mexico are flawed. Our present analysis confirms the results in Estrada et al. (2012; Clim Change 110:1029-1046), demonstrating that the downscaling method in Magaña et al. (2012) is unacceptable for producing regional climate change scenarios. The method generates random spatial patterns and magnitudes that replace the climate signals produced by general circulation models, as well as those contained in the observed local-scale data. Consequently, any application that uses these regional scenarios should not be used for decision-making. The statistical downscaling literature provides a range of methods that are appropriate for producing regional climate change scenarios.

KEY WORDS: Regional climate change scenarios · Statistical downscaling · National climate change documents · Mexico

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Cite this article as: Estrada F, Livezey RE, Martínez-López B, Gay-García C (2013) Revisiting a flawed downscaling methodology: Comment on Magaña et al. (2012). Clim Res 56:81-90.

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