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CR 65:159-173 (2015)  -  DOI:

Strategies for adapting maize to climate change and extreme temperatures in Andalusia, Spain

C. Gabaldón-Leal1,*, I. J. Lorite1, M. I. Mínguez2, J. I. Lizaso2, A. Dosio3, E. Sanchez4, M. Ruiz-Ramos2

1IFAPA-Centro Alameda del Obispo, Junta de Andalucía, P.O. Box 3092, 14080 Córdoba, Spain
2AgSystems-CEIGRAM, Technical University of Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain
3European Commission Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, 21027 Ispra, Italy
4Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Biochemistry, University of Castilla-La Mancha, 45071 Toledo, Spain
*‑Corresponding author:

ABSTRACT: Climate projections indicate that rising temperatures will affect summer crops in the southern Iberian Peninsula. The aim of this study was to obtain projections of the impacts of rising temperatures, and of higher frequency of extreme events on irrigated maize, and to evaluate some adaptation strategies. The study was conducted at several locations in Andalusia using the CERES-Maize crop model, previously calibrated/validated with local experimental datasets. The simulated climate consisted of projections from regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project; these were corrected for daily temperature and precipitation with regard to the E-OBS observational dataset. These bias-corrected projections were used with the CERES-Maize model to generate future impacts. Crop model results showed a decrease in maize yield by the end of the 21st century from 6 to 20%, a decrease of up to 25% in irrigation water requirements, and an increase in irrigation water productivity of up to 22%, due to earlier maturity dates and stomatal closure caused by CO2 increase. When adaptation strategies combining earlier sowing dates and cultivar changes were considered, impacts were compensated, and maize yield increased up to 14%, compared with the baseline period (1981-2010), with similar reductions in crop irrigation water requirements. Effects of extreme maximum temperatures rose to 40% at the end of the 21st century, compared with the baseline. Adaptation resulted in an overall reduction in extreme Tmax damages in all locations, with the exception of Granada, where losses were limited to 8%.

KEY WORDS: Climate change · Impact · Adaptation · Maize · Crop model · Regional climate model · Extreme temperature

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Cite this article as: Gabaldón-Leal C, Lorite IJ, Mínguez MI, Lizaso JI, Dosio A, Sanchez E, Ruiz-Ramos M (2015) Strategies for adapting maize to climate change and extreme temperatures in Andalusia, Spain. Clim Res 65:159-173.

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