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Clim Res 68:95-116 (2016)

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01374

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Extreme events in the La Plata basin: a retrospective analysis of what we have learned during CLARIS-LPB project

ABSTRACT: Extreme climate events over the La Plata basin (LPB) can produce significant impacts due to the importance of the regional agriculture and hydroelectric power production for the local economy. Progress on describing, projecting and understanding extremes in LPB, in the framework of the CLARIS-LPB Europe-South America Network for Climate Change Assessment and Impact Studies in La Plata Basin Project, are reviewed. The paper is based on recent studies and publications, as well as some new diagnostics as indicators of works in progress, and can be considered as an update for the LPB region of previous reviews by Cavalcanti et al. (2015; J Hydrol 523:211–230) and Rusticucci (2012; Atmos Res 106:1–17. Despite the significant advances on regional extremes, some gaps have been identified, and many challenges remain. Much of the recent progress considers temperature and precipitation extremes on timescales varying from synoptic to long-term variability and climate change, essential for impact and vulnerability assessments. Research lines on extremes requiring further efforts include the relative roles of local versus remote forcings, the impact of land use and land management changes, the specific role of soil moisture and land-atmosphere feedbacks as catalysts for heat waves, the impact of the local inhomogeneities in soil moisture, feedback and uncertainties in projections of extremes, as well as seasonal forecast and climate change attribution studies. We suggest combining intensive monitoring and modelling to address these issues.

KEYWORDS

Temperature extremes Precipitation extremes La Plata Basin Climate models Regional climate change

Andrea F. Carril (Corresponding Author)

  • Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA/CONICET-UBA), C1428EGA Buenos Aires, Argentina
  • Instituto Franco-Argentino para el Estudio del Clima y sus Impactos (UMI IFAECI/CNRS), C1428EGA Buenos Aires, Argentina
carril@cima.fcen.uba.ar

Iracema F. A. Cavalcanti (Co-author)

  • Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies/National Institute of Space Research (CPTEC/INPE), Cachoeira Paulista, 12600-000 São Paulo, Brazil

C. G. Menéndez (Co-author)

  • Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA/CONICET-UBA), C1428EGA Buenos Aires, Argentina
  • Instituto Franco-Argentino para el Estudio del Clima y sus Impactos (UMI IFAECI/CNRS), C1428EGA Buenos Aires, Argentina
  • Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos (DCAO/FCEN), Universidad de Buenos Aires, C1428EGA Buenos Aires, Argentina

A. Sörensson (Co-author)

  • Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA/CONICET-UBA), C1428EGA Buenos Aires, Argentina
  • Instituto Franco-Argentino para el Estudio del Clima y sus Impactos (UMI IFAECI/CNRS), C1428EGA Buenos Aires, Argentina

N. López-Franca (Co-author)

  • Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA/CONICET-UBA), C1428EGA Buenos Aires, Argentina
  • Instituto Franco-Argentino para el Estudio del Clima y sus Impactos (UMI IFAECI/CNRS), C1428EGA Buenos Aires, Argentina

J. A. Rivera (Co-author)

  • Instituto Franco-Argentino para el Estudio del Clima y sus Impactos (UMI IFAECI/CNRS), C1428EGA Buenos Aires, Argentina
  • Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA/CONICET), 5500 Mendoza, Argentina

F. Robledo (Co-author)

  • Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA/CONICET-UBA), C1428EGA Buenos Aires, Argentina
  • Instituto Franco-Argentino para el Estudio del Clima y sus Impactos (UMI IFAECI/CNRS), C1428EGA Buenos Aires, Argentina

P. G. Zaninelli (Co-author)

  • Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA/CONICET-UBA), C1428EGA Buenos Aires, Argentina
  • Instituto Franco-Argentino para el Estudio del Clima y sus Impactos (UMI IFAECI/CNRS), C1428EGA Buenos Aires, Argentina

T. Ambrizzi (Co-author)

  • Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, 05508-090 Brazil

O. C. Penalba (Co-author)

  • Instituto Franco-Argentino para el Estudio del Clima y sus Impactos (UMI IFAECI/CNRS), C1428EGA Buenos Aires, Argentina
  • Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos (DCAO/FCEN), Universidad de Buenos Aires, C1428EGA Buenos Aires, Argentina

R. P. da Rocha (Co-author)

  • Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, 05508-090 Brazil

E. Sánchez (Co-author)

  • Facultad Ciencias Ambientales y Bioquímica, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, 45071 Toledo, Spain

M. L. Bettolli (Co-author)

  • Instituto Franco-Argentino para el Estudio del Clima y sus Impactos (UMI IFAECI/CNRS), C1428EGA Buenos Aires, Argentina
  • Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos (DCAO/FCEN), Universidad de Buenos Aires, C1428EGA Buenos Aires, Argentina

N. Pessacg (Co-author)

  • Centro Nacional Patagónico (CENPAT/CONICET), Puerto Madryn, U9120ACF Chubut, Argentina

M. Renom (Co-author)

  • Unidad de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Instituto de Física, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la República, 11400 Montevideo, Uruguay

R. Ruscica (Co-author)

  • Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA/CONICET-UBA), C1428EGA Buenos Aires, Argentina
  • Instituto Franco-Argentino para el Estudio del Clima y sus Impactos (UMI IFAECI/CNRS), C1428EGA Buenos Aires, Argentina

S. Solman (Co-author)

  • Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA/CONICET-UBA), C1428EGA Buenos Aires, Argentina
  • Instituto Franco-Argentino para el Estudio del Clima y sus Impactos (UMI IFAECI/CNRS), C1428EGA Buenos Aires, Argentina
  • Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos (DCAO/FCEN), Universidad de Buenos Aires, C1428EGA Buenos Aires, Argentina

B. Tencer (Co-author)

  • School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, V8P 5C2 British Columbia, Canada

A. M. Grimm (Co-author)

  • Department of Physics, Federal University of Paraná, 81531-980 Curitiba, Brazil

M. Rusticucci (Co-author)

  • Instituto Franco-Argentino para el Estudio del Clima y sus Impactos (UMI IFAECI/CNRS), C1428EGA Buenos Aires, Argentina
  • Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos (DCAO/FCEN), Universidad de Buenos Aires, C1428EGA Buenos Aires, Argentina

A. Cherchi (Co-author)

  • Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, and Istituto Nazionale di Geofìsica e Vulcanologìa, 40127 Bologna, Italy

R. Tedeschi (Co-author)

  • Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies/National Institute of Space Research (CPTEC/INPE), Cachoeira Paulista, 12600-000 São Paulo, Brazil

L. Zamboni (Co-author)

  • Mathematics and Computer Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439, USA

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