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CR 80:203-218 (2020)  -  DOI:

Climate change adaptation cost and residual damage to global crop production

Toshichika Iizumi1,*, Zhihong Shen1, Jun Furuya2, Tatsuji Koizumi3, Gen Furuhashi3, Wonsik Kim1, Motoki Nishimori1

1Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8604, Japan
2Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8686, Japan
3Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-0013, Japan
*Corresponding author:

ABSTRACT: Adaptation will be essential in many sectors, including agriculture, as a certain level of warming is anticipated even after substantial climate mitigation. However, global adaptation costs and adaptation limits in agriculture are understudied. Here, we estimate the global adaptation cost and residual damage (climate change impacts after adaptation) for maize, rice, wheat and soybean using a global gridded crop model and empirical production cost models. Producers require additional expenditures under climate change to produce the same crop yields that would be achieved without climate change, and this difference is defined as the adaptation cost. On a decadal mean basis, the undiscounted global cost of climate change (adaptation cost plus residual damage) for the crops are projected to increase with warming from US$63 billion (B) at 1.5°C to $80 B at 2°C and to $128 B at 3°C per year. The adaptation cost gradually increases in absolute terms, but the share decreases from 84% of the cost of climate change ($53 B) at 1.5°C to 76% ($61 B) at 2°C and to 61% ($8 B) at 3°C. The residual damage increases from 16% ($10 B) at 1.5°C to 24% ($19 B) at 2°C and to 39% ($50 B) at 3°C. Once maintaining yields becomes difficult due to the biological limits of crops or decreased profitability, producers can no longer bear adaptation costs, and residual damages increase. Our estimates offer a basis to identify the gap between global adaptation needs and the funds available for adaptation.

KEY WORDS: Crop model · Production cost

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Cite this article as: Iizumi T, Shen Z, Furuya J, Koizumi T, Furuhashi G, Kim W, Nishimori M (2020) Climate change adaptation cost and residual damage to global crop production. Clim Res 80:203-218.

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