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CR 82:149-160 (2020)  -  DOI:

Stochastic simulation of the spatio-temporal field of the average daily heat index in Southern Russia

Nina Kargapolova1,2,*

1Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics SB RAS, Novosibirsk 630090, Russia
2Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk 630090, Russia
*Corresponding author:

ABSTRACT: Numerical models of the heat index time series and spatio-temporal fields can be used for a variety of purposes, from the study of the dynamics of heat waves to projections of the influence of future climate on humans. To conduct these studies one must have efficient numerical models that successfully reproduce key features of the real weather processes. In this study, 2 numerical stochastic models of the spatio-temporal non-Gaussian field of the average daily heat index (ADHI) are considered. The field is simulated on an irregular grid determined by the location of weather stations. The first model is based on the method of the inverse distribution function. The second model is constructed using the normalization method. Real data collected at weather stations located in southern Russia are used to both determine the input parameters and to verify the proposed models. It is shown that the first model reproduces the properties of the real field of the ADHI more precisely compared to the second one, but the numerical implementation of the first model is significantly more time consuming. In the future, it is intended to transform the models presented to a numerical model of the conditional spatio-temporal field of the ADHI defined on a dense spatio-temporal grid and to use the model constructed for the stochastic forecasting of the heat index.

KEY WORDS: Stochastic simulation · Spatio-temporal random field · Non-Gaussian random process · Heat index · Southern Russia

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Cite this article as: Kargapolova N (2020) Stochastic simulation of the spatio-temporal field of the average daily heat index in Southern Russia. Clim Res 82:149-160.

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