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CR 91:67-82 (2023)  -  DOI:

Asian climate warming since 1901: observation and simulation

Xiubao Sun1, Guoyu Ren2,3, Yuyu Ren3,*, Wei Lin1, Panfeng Zhang4, Siqi Zhang3, Xiaoying Xue2,3

1State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510301, PR China
2Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Environmental Sciences, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, PR China
3Laboratory for Climate Research, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, PR China
4College of Tourism and Geography, Jilin Normal University, Siping 136000, PR China
*Corresponding author:

ABSTRACT: Land surface air temperature in Asia has been increasing significantly since the 1950s. However, current understanding of Asian warming since 1901 in terms of observations and simulations is still poor. Based on a newly developed observation dataset with 2658 stations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5/6 (CMIP5/6) output data, we analyze changes in mean (Tmean), maximum (Tmax), and minimum (Tmin) temperature, and diurnal temperature range (DTR) over Asia during 1901-2100. Annual mean land surface air temperature over Asia increased significantly, and Tmean, Tmax, and Tmin increased by 1.81, 1.47, and 2.15°C during 1901-2020, respectively. The Tmin warming rate is about 1.5× that of Tmax, resulting in a decline of Asian DTR by 0.68°C since 1901. We also found that Asia has experienced more substantial warming than the global case and the Northern Hemisphere, and the decline in DTR is more substantial in Asia. Spatially, Asia exhibits a general warming trend with a gradual increase in spatial warming from low to high latitudes, and the effect of high-latitude warming has gradually strengthened since the 2000s. Seasonally, Asian warming in the cold season is stronger than in the warm season. Furthermore, CMIP5/6 can capture the Asian warming in the historical period 1901-2020. However, it underestimated Tmin and overestimated Tmax, contributing to their poor performance in simulating the historical change of DTR. Under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5, Asian Tmean, Tmax, and Tmin are projected to increase by 3.5, 3.4, and 3.7°C century-1 during 2021-2100, respectively. The Asian warming rate under SSP5-8.5 is about 2× that of SSP2-4.5.

KEY WORDS: Asian warming · Land surface air temperature · Trends · CMIP5/6 · Climate change

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Cite this article as: Sun X, Ren G, Ren Y, Lin W, Zhang P, Zhang S, Xue X (2023) Asian climate warming since 1901: observation and simulation. Clim Res 91:67-82.

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