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CR 92:61-64 (2024)  -  DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01735

OPINION PIECE
Rethinking the Holocene temperature conundrum

Helen Essell1, Jan Esper2,3, Heinz Wanner4, Ulf Büntgen3,5,6,7,*

1Archaeology & Palaeoecology, School of Natural and Built Environment, Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast BT7 1NN, UK
2Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, 55099 Mainz, Germany
3Global Change Research Institute (CzechGlobe), Czech Academy of Sciences, 603 00 Brno, Czech Republic
4Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research and Department of Geography, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
5Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EN, UK
6Swiss Federal Research Institute (WSL), 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
7Department of Geography, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University, 611 37 Brno, Czech Republic
*Corresponding author:

ABSTRACT: Recent scholarship argues for more research to resolve the ‘Holocene temperature conundrum’, an apparent discrepancy between decreasing proxy-reconstructed and increasing model-simulated long-term temperature trends during the late Holocene. Here, we argue that the observed proxy-model offset likely results from inappropriate comparisons of different seasonal and spatial signals in the reconstructed and simulated palaeo-data. Since proxy archives have been used to reconstruct global annual mean temperatures, they have been compared against model simulations of the same seasonal and spatial domains. However, we suggest that most of the proxy-based large-scale reconstructions are biased towards Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures, and as such model comparisons have predominantly focused on the wrong target data. Further to advancing our understanding of long-term temperature trends, we recommend prioritising the refinement of proxy networks and climate reconstructions to preserve the full spectrum of naturally forced, interannual to multi-millennial variations needed to contextualise recent anthropogenic changes against past Holocene ranges.


KEY WORDS: Holocene climates · Temperature reconstructions · Proxy archives · Model simulations · Orbital forcing · Paleoclimate research


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Cite this article as: Essell H, Esper J, Wanner H, Büntgen U (2024) Rethinking the Holocene temperature conundrum. Clim Res 92:61-64. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01735

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