Future population dynamics of temperate mosquito species under various precipitation scenarios

ABSTRACT: To evaluate the risk of disease spread by vectors, future mosquito population dynamics, which are strongly affected by climate change, must be predicted. Despite the importance of precipitation in mosquito development, predictions of mosquito population dynamics have rarely considered their effects. The most effective approach for future precipitation data is to use general circulation model outputs with downscaling. However, differences caused by various downscaling methods or models make it difficult to accurately evaluate future biological population dynamics. This study considered the uncertainty in future daily precipitation downscaling into four patterns, and predicted the population dynamics of two mosquito species for each pattern in Tokyo. Population dynamics were simulated using baseline meteorological data, and sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the effects of precipitation on the population dynamics of each species. Future population dynamics under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5, each with four different precipitation patterns, were then estimated. Culex pipiens abundance decreased with increasing precipitation frequency, whereas Aedes albopictus abundance showed no clear relationship with the precipitation patterns. In the future, C. pipiens and A. albopictus populations are predicted to decrease and increase, respectively, with differences in the rate of change driven by precipitation patterns. This study demonstrates the importance of considering the uncertainty in future precipitation when evaluating future mosquito population dynamics.