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ESR 43:253-266 (2020)  -  DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/esr01059

Predicting multi-species foraging hotspots for marine turtles in the Gulf of Mexico

Ikuko Fujisaki1,*, Kristen M. Hart2, David Bucklin1, Autumn R. Iverson3, Cynthia Rubio4, Margaret M. Lamont5, Raul de Jesus Gonzales Diaz Miron6, Patrick M. Burchfield7, Jaime Peña7, Donna J. Shaver4

1University of Florida, Ft. Lauderdale Research and Education Center, Davie, FL 33314, USA
2US Geological Survey, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center, Davie, FL 33314, USA
3University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA
4National Park Service, Padre Island National Seashore, Corpus Christi, TX 78480, USA
5US Geological Survey, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center, Gainesville, FL 32653, USA
6Acuario de Veracruz A.C., Veracruz, Veracruz 91900, Mexico
7Gladys Porter Zoo, Brownsville, TX 78520, USA
*Corresponding author:

ABSTRACT: Quantifying the distribution of animals and identifying underlying characteristics that define suitable habitat are essential for effective conservation of free-ranging species. Prioritizing areas for conservation is important in managing a geographic extent that has a high level of disturbance and limited conservation resources. We examined the potential use of a species distribution model ensemble for multi-species conservation in marine habitats. Using satellite telemetry locations during foraging as input data, and ensemble ecological niche models, we predicted foraging areas for 2 nesting marine turtle species within the Gulf of Mexico (GoM): Kemp’s ridley Lepidochelys kempii (n = 63) and loggerhead Caretta caretta (n = 63). We considered 7 geophysical, biological, and climatic variables and compared contributing factors for each species’ foraging habitat selection. For both species, predicted suitable foraging habitats encompassed large areas along the GoM coast, but only intersected with each other in relatively small areas. Highly parameterized models resulted in overall greater fits, suggesting that multiple factors influence habitat selection by these species. Model validation results were mixed: cross-validation resulted in high prediction accuracy for both species, but an evaluation against independent data resulted in a low omission rate (5%) for Kemp’s ridleys and a high omission rate (72%) for loggerheads. The relatively small intersection of model-predicted foraging areas for these 2 species within the study area may indicate possible niche differentiations. The high omission rate for loggerheads indicates our samples likely underrepresent the population and illustrates the challenges in predicting suitable foraging extents for species that make dynamic movements and have greater individual variability.


KEY WORDS: Ensemble ecological niche model · Foraging · Gulf of Mexico · Habitat · Kemp’s ridley · Loggerhead · Species distribution model


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Cite this article as: Fujisaki I, Hart KM, Bucklin D, Iverson AR and others (2020) Predicting multi-species foraging hotspots for marine turtles in the Gulf of Mexico. Endang Species Res 43:253-266. https://doi.org/10.3354/esr01059

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