MEPS

Marine Ecology Progress Series

MEPS is a leading hybrid research journal on all aspects of marine, coastal and estuarine ecology. Priority is given to outstanding research that advances our ecological understanding.

Online: ISSN 1616-1599

Print: ISSN 0171-8630

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/meps

Volume contents
Mar Ecol Prog Ser 472:1-13 (2013)

Alternative approaches for solving underdetermined isotope mixing problems

ABSTRACT: Statistical mixing models have been developed to help ecologists deal with isotope tracer data and to estimate source contributions in complex systems such as food webs and sediments. However, there are often too few tracer measurements and too many sources, so that unique solutions are not possible in underdetermined mixing models. This review highlights 3 approaches for solving otherwise underdetermined mixing models. The approaches include frequency-based statistics, calculations based on sectors measured in mixing polygons, and linear mixing between central and sidewall points in the mixing polygons. All approaches have some assumptions that allow extrapolation of mean solutions from measured data, with the simplest assumption being that any uncertainty in source contributions is divided in an even-handed manner among sources. A new graphical approach is proposed that allows scientists to critically recognize and separate data-supported aspects of solutions from any assumed aspects of solutions. The data-supported aspects of solutions can be tracked conservatively as the sum of the minimum source contributions, ΣMIN, and for the many cases where ΣMIN is low, additional ways to approach mixing problems are summarized from the published literature. Many underdetermined mixing problems do not have robust mean solutions with tracers employed thus far, so that there is a longer-term need for additional tracers and methodologies to really solve these complex ecological problems. This review concludes with several practical steps one can take to interpret isotope tracer information from underdetermined systems.

KEYWORDS

New mixing-model approaches strengthen the use of stable isotope tracers for solving environmental problems. Figure: B. Fry

Many marine ecologists use stable isotopes to trace flows of organic matter in natural systems. But tracer results need thoughtful interpretation when there are several alternative ways that the sources can mix and combine to give the observed isotope distributions. This review shows how to locate the most robust source solutions among the alternatives, using a two-track approach with simple graphs and sophisticated statistical programming. The new approach is illustrated with theoretical diagrams and also with a published study of mangrove creeks and crabs impacted by effluents from a shrimp farming area in Thailand. The article concludes with several practical steps to help ecologists apply this two-track approach.

Brian Fry (Co-author)