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MEPS 647:17-31 (2020)  -  DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/meps13401

Climate change in the Bay of Biscay: Changes in spatial biodiversity patterns could be driven by the arrivals of southern species

M. Le Marchand1,2,*, T. Hattab3, N. Niquil4, C. Albouy5, F. Le Loc’h2, F. Ben Rais Lasram6

1France Energies Marines, 525 avenue Alexis de Rochon, 29280 Plouzané, France
2IRD, Université Brest, CNRS, IFREMER, LEMAR, IUEM, 29280 Plouzané, France
3MARBEC, Université Montpellier, CNRS, IFREMER, IRD Sète, avenue Jean Monnet, 34200 Sète, France
4UMR BOREA, Team Ecofunc, Université de Caen, CNRS, MNHN, IRD, SU, UACS 14032, 14000 Caen, France
5IFREMER, unité Ecologie et Modèles pour l’Halieutique, 44200 Nantes, France
6Université Littoral Côte d’Opale, Université Lille, CNRS, UMR 8187, LOG, Laboratoire d’Océanologie et de Géosciences, 62930 Wimereux, France
*Corresponding author:

ABSTRACT: Under climate change, future species assemblages will be driven by the movements and poleward shift of local species and the arrival of more thermophilic species from lower latitudes. To evaluate the impacts of climate change on marine communities in the Bay of Biscay, we used the hierarchical filters modelling approach. Models integrated 3 vertical depth layers and considered 2 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) and 2 periods (2041-2050 and 2091-2100) to simulate potential future species distributions. Results predicted potentially suitable future ranges for 163 species as well as future arrivals of non-indigenous southern species. We aggregated these results to map changes in species assemblages. Results revealed that coastal areas would undergo the highest species loss among the Bay of Biscay species, depending on their vertical habitat (benthic, demersal, benthopelagic or pelagic). Benthic and demersal species were projected to experience a westward shift, which would induce a deepening of those species. In contrast, pelagic species were projected to shift northward. The potential ecological niche for half of the studied species, mostly benthic and demersal, was projected to decrease under climate change. In addition, a high rate of southern species arrivals is expected (+28%). Assessment of community composition showed high species replacement within the 0-50 m isobath, driven by the replacement of native species by southern ones. This could lead to a major reorganization of trophic networks and have socio-economic impacts.


KEY WORDS: Climate change · Ecological niche model · Habitat model · Hierarchical filters · Species turnover · Species distribution


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Cite this article as: Le Marchand M, Hattab T, Niquil N, Albouy C, Le Loc’h F, Lasram FBR (2020) Climate change in the Bay of Biscay: Changes in spatial biodiversity patterns could be driven by the arrivals of southern species. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 647:17-31. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps13401

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