Inter-Research > MEPS > v713 > p21-37  
Marine Ecology Progress Series

via Mailchimp

MEPS 713:21-37 (2023)  -  DOI:

Climate-induced changes in ocean productivity and food-web functioning are projected to markedly affect European fisheries catch

Hubert du Pontavice1,2,3,*, Didier Gascuel2, Susan Kay4, William W. L. Cheung3

1Princeton University, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA
2DECOD (Ecosystem Dynamics and Sustainability), Institut Agro/Inrae/Ifremer, Rennes 35042, France
3Changing Ocean Research Unit, Nippon Foundation-Nereus Program, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada
4Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth PL1 3DH, UK

ABSTRACT: In European waters, climate-induced changes in ocean conditions will alter marine ecosystems, leading to potential repercussions for the European fisheries and the status of exploited species. Here, we used a new version of the EcoTroph model, forced by a regional high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem model, to investigate the effects of climate change on biomass and catch in 15 areas (ICES divisions) of the European Atlantic shelf ecosystems. Based on the projected changes in temperature, zooplankton and benthic secondary producers, we modeled the changes in biomass and catch at each trophic level by the end of the 21st century. We projected that total biomass and catch for the whole Atlantic European seas would decrease by 11.5 and 10.0%, respectively, by 2090-2099 relative to 2013-2017 under a ‘no mitigation’ greenhouse gases emissions scenario (RCP8.5). The projected decrease in catch is 310000 or 240000 t by 2090-2099 under a high (RCP8.5) or a moderate (RCP4.5) emissions scenario, respectively. Some areas, such as the Celtic Sea, would be more affected than others, while the climate impact on the bentho-demersal biomass and catches would be more pronounced, especially toward the higher trophic levels. Our study suggests that climate change may strongly impact European fisheries, with ecological consequences and potential socio-economic repercussions. Future studies using alternative climate and ecosystem models would allow the exploration of uncertainties in projected biomass and catch. While fisheries management is required to adapt to these changes, the projected impacts on catch cannot be avoided without aggressive mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions.

KEY WORDS: Marine food web · Biomass flow · Climate change · EcoTroph · Fishing · Trophic ecology · Ecosystem modeling

Full text in pdf format
Supplementary material
Cite this article as: du Pontavice H, Gascuel D, Kay S, Cheung WWL (2023) Climate-induced changes in ocean productivity and food-web functioning are projected to markedly affect European fisheries catch. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 713:21-37.

Export citation
Share:    Facebook - - linkedIn

 Previous article Next article