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Marine Ecology Progress Series

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MEPS is a leading hybrid research journal on all aspects of marine, coastal and estuarine ecology. Priority is given to outstanding research that advances our ecological understanding.

Online: ISSN 1616-1599

Print: ISSN 0171-8630

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/meps

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Mar Ecol Prog Ser 732:167-192 (2024)

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/meps14547

copied

North Atlantic right whale density surface model for the US Atlantic evaluated with passive acoustic monitoring

ABSTRACT: The Critically Endangered North Atlantic right whale Eubalaena glacialis entered a population decline around 2011. To save this species without closing the ocean to human activities requires detailed information about its intra-annual density patterns that can be used to assess and mitigate human-caused risks. Using 2.9 million km of visual line-transect survey effort from the US Atlantic and Canadian Maritimes conducted in 2003-2020 by 11 institutions, we modeled the absolute density (ind. km-2) of the species using spatial, temporal, and environmental covariates at a monthly time step. We accounted for detectability differences between survey platforms, teams, and conditions, and corrected all data for perception and availability biases, accounting for platform differences, whale dive behavior, group composition, and group size. We produced maps of predicted density and evaluated our results using independently collected passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) data. Densities correlated positively (r = 0.46, ρ = 0.58, τ = 0.46) with acoustic detection rates obtained at 492 stationary PAM recorders deployed across the study area (mean recorder duration = 138 d). This is the first study to quantify the concurrence of visual and acoustic observations of the species in US waters. We summarized predictions into mean monthly density and uncertainty maps for the 2003-2009 and 2010-2020 eras, based on the significant changes in the species’ spatial distribution that began around 2010. The results quantify the striking distribution shifts and provide effort- and bias-corrected density surfaces to inform risk assessments, estimations of take, and marine spatial planning.

KEYWORDS

Eubalaena glacialisDensity modelsLine-transect surveysPassive acoustic monitoringAbundance estimationGeneralized additive models

Jason J. Roberts (Corresponding Author)

  • Marine Geospatial Ecology Laboratory, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA
jason.roberts@duke.edu

Tina M. Yack (Co-author)

  • Marine Geospatial Ecology Laboratory, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA

Ei Fujioka (Co-author)

  • Marine Geospatial Ecology Laboratory, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA

Patrick N. Halpin (Co-author)

  • Marine Geospatial Ecology Laboratory, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA

Mark F. Baumgartner (Co-author)

  • Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA

Oliver Boisseau (Co-author)

  • Marine Conservation Research, Kelvedon CO5 9AA, UK

Samuel Chavez-Rosales (Co-author)

  • Integrated Statistics under contract to Northeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA

Timothy V. N. Cole (Co-author)

  • Northeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA

Mark P. Cotter (Co-author)

  • HDR, Inc., Virginia Beach, VA 23445, USA

Genevieve E. Davis (Co-author)

  • Northeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA

Robert A. DiGiovanni Jr. (Co-author)

  • Atlantic Marine Conservation Society, Hampton Bays, NY 11946, USA

Laura C. Ganley (Co-author)

  • Anderson Cabot Center for Ocean Life, New England Aquarium, Boston, MA 02110, USA

Lance P. Garrison (Co-author)

  • Southeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Miami, FL 33149, USA

Caroline P. Good (Co-author)

  • Office of Protected Resources, NOAA Fisheries, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA

Timothy A. Gowan (Co-author)

  • Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, USA

Katharine A. Jackson (Co-author)

  • Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, USA

Robert D. Kenney (Co-author)

  • Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI 02882, USA

Christin B. Khan (Co-author)

  • Northeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA

Amy R. Knowlton (Co-author)

  • Anderson Cabot Center for Ocean Life, New England Aquarium, Boston, MA 02110, USA

Scott D. Kraus (Co-author)

  • Anderson Cabot Center for Ocean Life, New England Aquarium, Boston, MA 02110, USA

Gwen G. Lockhart (Co-author)

  • Tetra Tech, Inc., Boston, MA 02109, USA

Kate S. Lomac-MacNair (Co-author)

  • Tetra Tech, Inc., Oakland, CA 94612, USA

Charles A. Mayo (Co-author)

  • Center for Coastal Studies, Provincetown, MA 02657, USA

Brigid E. McKenna (Co-author)

  • Integrated Statistics under contract to Northeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA

William A. McLellan (Co-author)

  • Department of Biology and Marine Biology, University of North Carolina Wilmington, Wilmington, NC 28403, USA

Douglas P. Nowacek (Co-author)

  • Duke University Marine Laboratory, Beaufort, NC 28516, USA
  • Pratt School of Engineering, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA

Orfhlaith O’Brien (Co-author)

  • Anderson Cabot Center for Ocean Life, New England Aquarium, Boston, MA 02110, USA

D. Ann Pabst (Co-author)

  • Department of Biology and Marine Biology, University of North Carolina Wilmington, Wilmington, NC 28403, USA

Debra L. Palka (Co-author)

  • Northeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA

Eric M. Patterson (Co-author)

  • Office of Protected Resources, NOAA Fisheries, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA

Daniel E. Pendleton (Co-author)

  • Integrated Statistics under contract to Northeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA

Ester Quintana-Rizzo (Co-author)

  • Emmanuel College, Boston, MA 02155, USA

Nicholas R. Record (Co-author)

  • Tandy Center for Ocean Forecasting, Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, East Boothbay, ME 04544, USA

Jessica V. Redfern (Co-author)

  • Anderson Cabot Center for Ocean Life, New England Aquarium, Boston, MA 02110, USA

Meghan E. Rickard (Co-author)

  • New York Natural Heritage Program, College of Environmental Science and Forestry, State University of New York, Kings Park, NY 11754, USA

Melanie White (Co-author)

  • Clearwater Marine Aquarium Research Institute, Clearwater, FL 33767, USA

Amy D. Whitt (Co-author)

  • Azura Consulting LLC, Garland, TX 75043, USA

Ann M. Zoidis (Co-author)

  • Tetra Tech, Inc., Oakland, CA 94612, USA

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