MEPS

Marine Ecology Progress Series

MEPS is a leading hybrid research journal on all aspects of marine, coastal and estuarine ecology. Priority is given to outstanding research that advances our ecological understanding.

Online: ISSN 1616-1599

Print: ISSN 0171-8630

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/meps

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Volume contents
Mar Ecol Prog Ser 769:125-145 (2025)

Historical versus recent trends in the tropicalization of fisheries catches along a latitudinal temperature gradient

ABSTRACT:

Climate change is reshaping marine ecosystems by altering the abundance, distribution, and productivity of fish and invertebrate stocks that support economically significant fisheries. The mean temperature of the catch (MTC) index is a well-established metric that has been developed to detect the signature of ocean warming in fisheries catches. Here, we used up-to-date catch data sets to analyze long-term historical (1950-2022) and recent accelerated (2000-2022) MTC trends over a latitudinal temperature gradient along the east and Gulf coast of the USA. Analyses revealed regional heterogeneity, with New England and the US South Atlantic region exhibiting the highest long-term MTC increases (0.12 and 0.39°C decade-1, respectively) that were even more pronounced in recent decades (0.79 and 0.66°C decade-1, respectively). This northward shift in the intensity of catch tropicalization aligns with accelerated warming in the Northeast US Atlantic shelf. The upward MTC trends were associated with increased prevalence of warm-water species and decreased occurrence of cold-water species in the catches and were predominantly explained by rising sea surface temperatures and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Our analyses comprehensively covered >80% of catches in all regions, confirming that observed trends are not driven by single species and supporting the MTC index as a robust tool for detecting fisheries’ responses to warming. This study provides a nuanced understanding of how marine communities and fisheries are responding to climate change across oceanographic regimes. The distinct regional responses challenge simple latitudinal assumptions, highlighting the need for region-specific management adaptations in a warming environment.

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Donna Dimarchopoulou (Corresponding Author)

  • Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 4R2, Canada
  • Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543, USA
ddimarch@dal.ca

Jesús Pineda (Co-author)

  • Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543, USA

Rubao Ji (Co-author)

  • Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543, USA

Boris Worm (Co-author)

  • Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 4R2, Canada

Heike Lotze (Co-author)

  • Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 4R2, Canada

Handling Editor:
Myron Peck, Den Burg, The Netherlands

Reviewers:
2 anonymous referees

Acknowledgements:

We acknowledge that the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution is located on, and has benefited directly from, the traditional and unceded lands of the Wôpanâak (Wampanoag) Peoples, while Dalhousie University operates in, and has benefited directly from, the un­ceded territories of the Mi’kmaw, Wolastoqey, and Peskotomuhkati Peoples. Funding for this research was provided by the Canada First Research Excellence Fund through the International Postdoctoral Fellowship (IPDF) Program award from the Ocean Frontier Institute (OFI) led by Dalhousie University. We want to sincerely thank Gabriel Reygondeau for graciously providing the NEREUS temperature preference data. We are particularly thankful to Mike Fogarty for his help with NOAA fisheries landings sources and his overall valuable insights. We gratefully acknowledge the helpful contribution of Charles Lavin in R coding and of Jane Weinstock in obtaining the SST data used in Fig. 1. We also thank Melissa Karp, Robert McGuinn, and Tim Haverland from NOAA for facilitating the sharing of shapefiles of fishery management council boundaries used in Fig. 1. Special thanks to Michael Lewis, Sarina Atkinson, Molly Stevens, Kyle Shertzer, and Matt Damiano at NOAA Fisheries for their assistance with South Atlantic landings. R.J. and J.P. gratefully acknowledge support from WHOI's Stanley W. Watson Chair for Excellence in Oceanography, while R.J. also thanks the support from NSF NES-LTER project (OCE-2322676). Finally, D.D. is forever grateful to Athanassios Tsikliras for the enlightening discussions and insightful ideas.

© Inter-Research 2025.