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CR prepress abstract   -  DOI:

Ocean–Land Atmosphere Model (OLAM) performance for major extreme meteorological events near the coastal region of southern Brazil

D. C. de Souza*, R. Ramos da Silva

*Corresponding author:

ABSTRACT: Coastal regions are generally densely populated and have become highly vulnerable to the occurrence of extreme events. In recent years, Brazil's southern coastal region has been affected by several different extreme weather events that have caused coastal flooding, with economic losses as well as fatalities. Understanding and improving the predictability of these events has become a major issue for the local population. In this study, a state-of-the-art numerical modeling was applied to this region to assess the model's ability to represent the major extreme events. The Ocean–Land Atmosphere Model (OLAM) was applied to the region with a high resolution grid refinement technique capable of simultaneously representing global and local atmospheric phenomena. The main events that affected Brazil southern coastal region between 2000 and 2018 were identified and then simulated. All selected events occurred associated with cyclonic and/or anticyclonic systems near the coastal region of the study area. Those systems were responsible for bringing heavy rain, strong winds and sea level rise, causing impacts for the coastal region. The results of the numerical simulations were compared with observational data to evaluate the model performance. The model simulated well the air temperature and wind fields. The correlation values for the SLP were high despite a positive bias of maximum 2 hPa. The precipitation presented a negative bias for most events. Finally, the results show that the methodology allowed for a detailed representation of sensible and latent heat fluxes for the region allowing a better representation of the local mesoscale features.