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CR prepress abstract   -  DOI:

The recently suggested absence of an internal multidecadal oscillation in the North Atlantic has consequences for anticipating the future of marine ecosystems

G. Beaugrand*, R. Faillettaz, R. R. Kirby

*Corresponding author:

ABSTRACT: The North Atlantic marine ecosystem was expected to adjust imminently to a negative phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Recent results suggest however, that the AMO is not a regular internal source of variability but has been driven by both volcanism and sulphate aerosol emissions that have influenced temperature negatively and a period of greenhouse gas accumulation causing temperatures to be higher than normal. The demise of the AMO removes the expected and imminent cyclical change from the current warm phase to a negative cool phase in the North Atlantic. Here, we discuss the implications of this new finding for the near-future of North Atlantic marine ecosystems in a context of rapid climate warming.