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Projections of wind power density in Pakistan and adjacent regions

Michelle S. Reboita, Rida Sehar Kiani, Shaukat Ali*, Tahir Khan

*Corresponding author:

ABSTRACT: This work focuses on the wind energy in Pakistan projected by three Regional Climate Models (RCMs), COSMO-CLM, REMO and RegCM4, nested in different Global Climate Models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Five time-slices (1995-2014, 2020-2039, 2040-2059, 2060-2079 and 2080-2099) and two scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) are analyzed. Wind energy studies are based on two variables: wind intensity and wind power density (WPD). WPD is a measure of the wind energy produced by the turbines installed away from the surface, currently, at 100 meters height. Before computing WPD, a simple bias correction was applied to the model data. Considering the whole Pakistan, wind intensity is found to be higher in June-July-August due to the influence of the active phase of the monsoon. In terms of subdomains, higher intense winds are reported in Balochistan and Sindh provinces. In the same regions and season, the wind intensity is projected to increase (~1-1.5 m s-1), which leads to an increase in WPD of more than 20% Bolachistan and 40% in Sindh under RCP8.5. Also, the eastern part of the country projects an increase in the WPD but it is not enough for wind energy generation. Our research findings can be useful for entrepreneur investors in wind energy.