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Spatio-temporal trend and frequency analysis of precipitation in South-southern Nigeria (SSN)

Akinwale Temitope Ogunrinde*, Yahaya Olotu, Oluwaseun Ayodele Ilesanmi

*Corresponding author:

ABSTRACT: Precipitation is one of the key climatic parameters that have a significant impact on the spatial and temporal trends of available water resources in a region. Therefore, carrying out a long-term analysis on its seasonal and annual trends and variability is imperative for viable water resources management. This study investigates the seasonal and annual precipitation data for South-southern Nigeria (SSN) between 1951 and 2016. SSN witnessed a region-wide decrease over the 66-year period with annual, DJF, MAM and JJA seasonal precipitation; while SON season reduced in 81.2% of the stations. On the regional scale level, trend analysis confirmed a region-wide decrease, which was discovered by the station-specific analysis, but a greater number of significant declines were found for annual and MAM precipitation records for all the six states within SSN. The degree of wetness and dryness within the states in SSN indicate that all witnessed extreme dryness more than extreme wetness periods during the study duration. This may be attributed to evident changes in climate that also reflected in the decreasing trends reported during the annual and seasonal timescales. 1-year dominant variance was significant throughout the entire study period for precipitation time series in all the six states in SSN. The major outputs from this study show that SSN may have challenges in meeting the required water needed for agriculture and other domestic needs if adequate measures are not in place to fully harness other water sources within the crop growing season of MAM.