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Impact of climate change on farm level technical efficiency in Punjab, Pakistan

Khush Bukhat Zahid, Hassnain Shah*

*Corresponding author:

ABSTRACT: This paper assessed the impact of climate change on farm level productivity and technical efficiency in the Punjab province of Pakistan. The Stochastic Production Frontier model was employed on the farm household level for three years of panel data (n=537) covering three cropping systems: rice-wheat, cotton wheat, and mixed-wheat from three different agro-ecologies and 17 out of 36 districts of Punjab. Though the use of inputs was found to have a positive impact on farm production, the results highlight strong negative impacts of the increase in long-run temperature normal and fluctuating precipitation across the crop production seasons. Weather shocks and socioeconomic factors of the farm family significantly contributed to the farm's technical efficiency. A mean technical efficiency score of 0.82 suggests that with the use of climate-smart technologies and improving farm management with better use of production inputs, there is potential for improving farm-level technical efficiency. The declining trend of the mean technical efficiency due to weather shocks necessitates the adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices. However, this requires that farmers should be supported with targeted coping options for expected weather shocks differentiated by crop production zones. A well-coordinated climate and extension service can support the adoption of climate-smart agriculture for sustainable crop production.