CR prepress abstract   -  DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01745

ABSTRACT: Fires in the Amazon Forest are a result of anthropogenic activity in the region. As the Amazon Forest becomes vulnerable to fire through deforestation and climate change, it is imperative to understand how the fire risk will change future years. Not only for its potential to become a source of carbon to the atmosphere if burned, but also for its unique biodiversity and critical role in regional and global climate. Therefore, we used the Eta regional climate model driven by three global climate models to simulate two distinct scenarios: one with high CO₂ emission (RCP8.5-DEF15) path and another scenario with high CO₂ emission path and total deforestation of the Amazon Forest (RCP8.5-DEFTOT). Combining the multi-model ensemble temperature and precipitation, we calculated the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) and analyzed it during the dry and wet season. In both scenarios, precipitation is reduced and maximum temperature increased. The highest changes occur in the dry season and in the RCP8.5-DEFTOT scenario. In a scenario of high CO₂ emission, the KBDI is highly affected, showing positive anomalies in both seasons. With the addition of deforestation, the fire risk is even more exacerbated, thus highlighting the role of the forest in suppressing optimal conditions for fire. Additionally, more than half of the basin area is predicted to experience a high risk of fire in extreme years. Finally, our results emphasize the importance of reducing global emissions and deforestation of the Amazon, since fire activity could threaten the future of the Amazon Forest.