MEPS 599:253-266 (2018)  -  DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/meps12637

ABSTRACT: Understanding biodiversity distribution shifts caused by climate change is one of the top conservation concerns in modern biology. In this study, we entered 8 yr of geolocation tracking data of the single-island endemic and threatened Desertas petrel Pterodroma deserta into a species distribution model and quantified the species-habitat relationship and how its current wintering areas could change as a result of new climatic conditions. Our model found that the species’ range would increase 430.6 ± (SD) 57.8% in future scenarios compared to its current range, as long as the species is able to reach all of the new areas identified by the models. However, the suitability of current wintering areas in the Cape Verde Islands and on the US east coast would decrease 52.8 ± 4.4% as a consequence of the predicted windier conditions. The Desertas petrel has a small population size (160-180 pairs) and is considered ‘Vulnerable’ according to IUCN criteria, and individuals show high inter-annual site-fidelity to their wintering grounds. Our findings raise conservation concerns about the future of this species, which might heavily depend on the flexibility of adults and the capacity of future generations to disperse and use new wintering areas.

KEY WORDS: Desertas petrel · Ensemble species distribution modelling · Environmental changes · Representative concentration pathways · Pterodroma deserta