MEPS prepress abstract  -  DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/meps12980

Global biogeography of coral recruitment: tropical decline and subtropical increase

Nichole N. Price*, Soyoka Muko, Louis Legendre, Robert Steneck, Madeleine J. H. van Oppen, Rebecca Albright, Put Ang, Robert C. Carpenter, Apple Pui Yi Chui, Tung-Yung Fan, Ruth D. Gates, Saki Harii, Hiroaki Kitano, Haruko Kurihara, Satoshi Mitarai, Jacqueline L. Padilla-GamiƱo, Kazuhiko Sakai, Go Suzuki, Peter J. Edmunds

*Email: nprice@bigelow.org

ABSTRACT: Despite widespread climate-driven reductions of coral cover on tropical reefs, little attention has been paid to the possibility that changes in the geographic distribution of coral recruitment could facilitate beneficial responses to the changing climate through latitudinal range shifts. To address this possibility, we compiled a global database of normalized densities of coral recruits on settlement tiles (corals m-2) deployed from 1974 to 2012, and used the data therein to test for latitudinal range shifts in the distribution of coral recruits. Ninety two studies provided 1,253 records of coral recruitment, with 77% originating from settlement tiles immersed for 3–24 months, herein defined as long-immersion tiles (LITs); the limited temporal and geographic coverage of data from short-immersion tiles (SITs, deployed for <3 months) made them less suitable for the present purpose. The results from LITs show declines in coral recruitment, on a global scale (i.e., 82% from 1974 to 2012) and throughout the tropics (85% reduction at <20° latitude), and increases in the sub-tropics (78% increase at >20° latitude). These trends indicate that a global decline in coral recruitment has occurred since 1974, and the persistent reduction in the densities of recruits in equatorial latitudes, coupled with increased in densities in sub-tropical latitudes, suggests that coral recruitment may be shifting poleward.