MEPS 680:137-161 (2021)  -  DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/meps13906

ABSTRACT: Scaling experimentally derived effects of CO₂ on marine fauna to population responses is critical for informing management about potential ecological ramifications of ocean acidification. We used an individual-based model of winter flounder to extrapolate laboratory-derived effects of elevated CO₂ assumed for early life stages of fish to long-term population dynamics. An offspring module with detailed hourly to daily representations of spawning, growth, and mortality that incorporates potential elevated CO₂ effects was linked to an annual time-step parent module. We calibrated the model using a 40 yr Reference simulation (1977-2016) that included gradual warming and then performed ‘Retrospective’ simulations that assumed a suite of elevated CO₂ effects by changing fertilization rate, mortality rate of embryos due to developmental malformations, larval growth rate, and size-at-settlement. ‘Recovery’ simulations that started at low population size were then used to further explore possible interactions between the effects of CO₂ and warming on population productivity. Warming had a major negative effect on the simulated winter flounder population abundance, and reduced larval growth had the largest single impact among the CO₂ effects tested. When a combination of the assumed CO₂ effects was imposed together, average annual recruitment and spawning stock biomass were reduced by half. In the Recovery simulations, inclusion of CO₂ effects amplified the progressive decrease in population productivity with warming. Our analysis is speculative and a first step towards addressing the need for extrapolating from laboratory effects of ocean acidification to broader, ecologically relevant scales.

KEY WORDS: Elevated CO₂ · Fish · Model · Ocean acidification · Population · Winter flounder

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Cite this article as: Huebert KB, Rose KA, Chambers RC (2021) Simulating fish population responses to elevated CO2: a case study using winter flounder. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 680:137-161. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps13906 Export citation Share:    Facebook - - linkedIn