CR 17:55-62 (2001)  -  doi:10.3354/cr017055

Severity of winter seasons in the northern Baltic Sea between 1529 and 1990: reconstruction and analysis

S. Jevrejeva1,2,*

1Estonian Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Rävala pst. 8, Tallinn 10143, Estonia
2Tallinn Pedagogical University, Narva mnt. 25, Tallinn 10120, Estonia

ABSTRACT: This paper presents the reconstructed severity of winter seasons in the northern Baltic Sea on the basis of historical time series of ice break-up at the port of Riga (1529-1990). The winter seasons are classified as mild, average severe. Results of statistical analysis of time series of the date of ice break-up arranged according to the severity of winter seasons are given. A decreasing trend of about 2.0 d century-1 for the time series of ice break-up dates for severe winters is detected with statistical significance at the 99.9% level; for the mild and average winter seasons the trends are statistically insignificant.

KEY WORDS: Ice conditions · Severity of winter seasons · Baltic Sea · Trend

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