Endangered Species Research
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/esr01536
copiedEffects of climate and land use changes on present and forecasted habitat suitability for the Mojave Desert tortoise Gopherus agassizii
- Anjana Parandhaman
- Nathan W. Byer
- Marjorie D. Matocq
- Derek Friend
- Alexander Audet
- Douglas P. Boyle
- Scott Bassett
- Jill S. Heaton
- Derek B. Hall
- Kristin H. Berry
- Jeffrey E. Lovich
- Amy G. Vandergast
- Todd C. Esque
- Kenneth E. Nussear
Models of species distribution help identify habitat for species across landscapes experiencing anthropogenic change. Under future climate and land use scenarios, the leading edges of a shifting range may play a key role in maintaining adaptation. Thus, assessing habitat suitability in both core and edge regions is essential for conservation planning. The Mojave Desert tortoise Gopherus agassizii is a long-lived species with limited dispersal abilities, persisting in a fragmented desert landscape. To expand on existing models, we conducted field surveys emphasizing range edges and understudied areas. Locality data were used to generate an updated present-day habitat suitability model and to forecast future habitat under climate and land use scenarios. Our models identified areas of currently suitable habitat and projected potential shifts. Environmental relationships indicated that tortoise habitat is associated with higher winter minimum and summer maximum temperatures, as well as soil characteristics such as high sand content and low coarse fragment content in surface horizons. Our forecasts consistently predicted declines in habitat under future scenarios, with greater losses under higher emissions and urbanization. Notably, critical habitat units were among the most vulnerable. These results suggest that combined pressures of climate change and land use will likely reduce suitable habitat for the Mojave Desert tortoise. Our findings raise concerns about the species’ capacity to adapt, the persistence of edge populations, and whether future habitat will receive adequate protection. Identifying shifting suitable areas and corridors could be vital for long-term conservation and management.
KEYWORDS
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Anjana Parandhaman (Corresponding Author)
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95060, USA
- Department of Geography, University of Nevada, Reno, NV 89557, USA
- Present address: Department of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Santa Clara University, Santa Clara, CA 95053, USA
Nathan W. Byer (Co-author)
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, University of Nevada, Reno, NV 89503, USA
- Natural Resources Division, Cleveland Metroparks, Cleveland, OH 44144, USA
Marjorie D. Matocq (Co-author)
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, University of Nevada, Reno, NV 89503, USA
Derek Friend (Co-author)
- Department of Geography, University of Nevada, Reno, NV 89557, USA
- Natural Resources Division, Cleveland Metroparks, Cleveland, OH 44144, USA
Alexander Audet (Co-author)
- Department of Geography, University of Nevada, Reno, NV 89557, USA
Douglas P. Boyle (Co-author)
- Department of Geography, University of Nevada, Reno, NV 89557, USA
Scott Bassett (Co-author)
- Department of Geography, University of Nevada, Reno, NV 89557, USA
Jill S. Heaton (Co-author)
- Department of Geography, University of Nevada, Reno, NV 89557, USA
- Mission Support and Test Services, LLC, Mercury, NV 89030, USA
Kristin H. Berry (Co-author)
- United States Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, Sacramento, CA 95819, USA
Jeffrey E. Lovich (Co-author)
- United States Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, Sacramento, CA 95819, USA
Amy G. Vandergast (Co-author)
- United States Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, Sacramento, CA 95819, USA
Todd C. Esque (Co-author)
- United States Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, Sacramento, CA 95819, USA
Kenneth E. Nussear (Co-author)
- Department of Geography, University of Nevada, Reno, NV 89557, USA
Handling Editor:
Michael Mahony, Callaghan, New South Wales, Australia
Reviewers:
R. Averill-Murray and 1 anonymous referee
Acknowledgements:
We thank various personnel, including Ann McLuckie, Cameron Rognan, Michael Schjif, Melissa Merrick, and Debra Hughson, for helping us obtain access to field sites in Death Valley National Park, Zion National Park, and the Mojave National Preserve. Special thanks to Ironwood Consulting for helping with the field aspects of this project, particularly Rachel Woodard, Brian Sandstrom, and Kelsi Black. Fieldwork was also conducted with the help of Kirsten Dutcher, Corey Mitchell, Ally Xiong, Steven Hromada, and Jonathan DeBoer. Thanks to Kristina Drake and Felicia Chen for their help with logistics and field gear. We also thank the reviewers, who provided valuable comments on earlier versions of the manuscript. This work was funded by the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) under project RC18-1207. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the US Government. This work represents a part of A.P.’s doctoral dissertation at the University of Nevada, Reno.